We've invited some guest writers to contribute to fabtcg.com for the Skirmish season. Alex Truell is known for his work as an editor at the Rathe Times, and his monthly articles series titled Thoughts and Baubles. This is the second article in his metagame series, discussing the first week of Skirmish Season 4 events.
Something old, something new, something borrowed, and something blue. As I review the statistics from the first week of Skirmish season, that phrase comes to mind to describe the decks that are seeing the most success in converting their play rate into tournament wins. But before we get to that, I’d like to set you up for the approach we’re going to be taking as we analyze Skirmish Season 4.
If you followed the weekly coverage of the ProQuest season, you’ve no doubt seen the extensive statistics that Legend Story Studios has at its disposal. This is the product of their robust tournament software, which does an incredible job of recording the results of tournaments across the globe.
(As an aside, have you checked out your own account profile recently? You can look back on your tournament record, review your wins and losses, and even see the names of players you faced in each round. I just recently reviewed my own record to discover which locals I’ve been consistently losing to — time to buckle down and target their favorite decks!)
Comparatively, the Skirmish season is less competitive by design. The Blitz format is more explosive, young heroes are more eclectic, and Skirmish kits are provided to many more stores. While Skirmish events are certainly more competitive than your weekly Armory, they’re also approachable and readily available. In-depth statistical analysis doesn’t fit the intention behind Skirmish. And so, rather than presenting graphs and charts that will mathematically point to the decks that are most likely to win, we will be covering the data in terms of trends, representation, and successes.
Something Old
An old hero is making a major comeback in his class. Viserai is once again the most popular Runeblade- and for that matter, the most popular hero in week one of Skirmish! It seems that recent success in Classic Constructed, combined with uncertainty over Briar’s best build and aversion to the risk inherent to Chane’s Shadowy strategy, has propelled Viserai back to the forefront of players’ minds.
Unlike Prism (whose auras are much more of a liability with only 20 health) and Starvo (who isn’t even an option in Blitz), Viserai’s strategies from ProQuest can all be ported over to Blitz. This makes the transition from Classic Constructed to Blitz much easier, and allows competitively-minded players to keep their focus in one place.
It’s impossible to say from the data how similar the Viserai builds may be. The original Runeblade showcases incredible versatility, and decks can be built around several viable strategies. However, I’m willing to wager most featured Sonata Arcanix prominently! This card provides Viserai with a key pivot turn mid-game, and can even be used as a finisher with a stockpile of Runechants and a Bloodsheath Skeleta.
Viserai made up 16.5% of the meta in Week 1; for comparison, Briar was only 4% of the population, and Chane a distant 2.3%. Viserai converted appearances to Top 8 at a rate of 61%, and wins at a rate of nearly 15%.
Before we continue, let’s talk about statistics for a moment.
When we talk about population percentages, conversion rates, and the like, we need to take into account the variables at play.
Let’s imagine, for a moment, a tournament of 8, where every player brought Viserai. In this scenario, Viserai would make up 100% of the field, and would have a 100% conversion rate to Top 8- but would only win 12.5% of the time!
Conversely, a tournament with 8 distinct heroes would see each hero holding 12.5% of the field, with a 100% conversion to Top 8, and whoever won would have a 100% win conversion rate- while they others sport zeroes!
Therefore, the population of a hero has a major influence on its win rate. The greater the population of a hero at any given event, the lower the percentage at which that hero will convert its appearances into a tournament win.
Which begs the question: why is Alex talking about conversion rates at all? Well, the greater the population of a hero at any given event, the greater the odds that hero wins it all. Simply put, if the tournament was stripped down to nothing more than a lottery, that hero would have more entries!
This is, in part, why the Skirmish reports won’t be holding tightly to the statistical analysis of the ProQuest season. With more events happening at the same time and an intentionally casual atmosphere, the numbers are going to shift and shape around strange factors that we won’t be able to suss out. Did the event have an abnormally low turnout? Did the local players agree not to repeat heroes? Did one player use his knowledge of the field to roll in with a silver bullet build? The numbers are fun, but not statistically significant in the way that numbers from a small pool of larger events are.
Something New
Approaching Skirmish Season 4, perhaps no hero has been as hyped as Kassai, Cintari Sellsword. Armed with a brand new specialization- Blood On Her Hands- Kassai looked like an absolute terror with an explosive finisher. Warrior stayed off the radar for much of Classic Constructed, which allowed Kassai to return with all the reaction-phase combat that made a name for Dorinthea early in the game’s history. And for those who had committed to heart the strategy of overblocking Dori’s first weapon swing, Kassai offered a dangerous new twist: the second swing may very well be the bigger threat.
Kassai has been around since Crucible of War, but because we only just received her specialization in Everfest, she feels entirely new. She was a niche hero before, played mostly by dedicated fans who wanted something different. Kassai was not known for being a major player in the Blitz meta, even as Spoils of War, Cash In, and- more recently- Valiant Dynamos all did more for her than anyone else. That's all changed now, with Kassai beating out both Dorinthea and Boltyn in representation and Top 8 conversions. (Notably, Dorinthea converted appearances into wins a little more often this weekend.)
Kassai made up 13.5% of the field, converted appearances to Top 8s in 59% of those appearances, and went on to win 10% of her tournaments.
As long as we're on the subject of reinvigorated heroes, let's check in with the rest of the young heroes from Crucible of War.
If we don't include Ira, the other CRU heroes saw a tepid first week. Kayo, Berzerker Runt made 41 appearances, claiming 2.6% of the field. For comparison, Rhinar showed up more than twice as often. Kayo was never likely to be the predominant Brute, but he did receive more direct support in Everfest than Rhinar did; it seems players aren't comfortable yet with bringing dice to a card game.
Benji, the Piercing Wind fared a little better, making 53 appearances and bringing home one tournament crown. Before Starvo had even been figured out, Benji's Spring Tidings was spoken of in hushed tones for fear that its power in conjunction with Mask of the Pouncing Lynx would catch on. It seems that a few players are chasing that dream; it will be interesting to see if Benji can continue to apply pressure, or if catching opponents off guard with Spring Tidings is essential to his success.
12 brave souls ran Data Doll MkII last week! And 4 of them nabbed Top 8 slots! Formerly a pariah for her 3-card hands, it would seem that systems are coming online with the installation of Micro-processor. If you haven't tried Data Doll for yourself yet, you absolutely need to; there's no other deck like her, and it pushes the boundaries of design space using alternate hand sizes.
I have to mention 4 appearances of Shiyana, Diamond Gemini- though as a Shapeshifter, maybe there were more? Kavdaen, Trader of Skins also made 3 appearances- I can't wait to see the decklists for both of these heroes!
Something Borrowed
According to the lore, Oldhim predates Bravo by quite a bit. But after the spotlight turned toward the Star of the Show last month, it's hard to look at Oldhim now and not see Bravo's influence. And it's for the best; Oldhim has sped up his game, and is converting high play rates (13.6% of the field) to tournament wins as a rate that rivals Viserai (just north of 14%).
I suspect that many players have picked up Oldhim as a continuation of strategies they learned from Starvo. It's easy to reconfigure a Classic Constructed Starvo deck into a Blitz Oldhim deck, and the Legendaries you've acquired for one are put to good use in the other as well. This is in surprising contrast with the basic Bravo, who has none of the elemental affinity of his future self and pursues a very different strategy of dominated attacks and pitching high-cost blues. The original Bravo made up 2.8% of the meta- but still managed to snag 3 tournament wins, for a conversion rate of nearly 7% of appearances.
If you're wondering about the other Guardian, Valda Brightaxe made half as many appearances as WTR Bravo, and none of those turned into tournament wins. Valda strikes a delicate balance with her core strategy, which gives the opponent cards to gain discounts and dominate for her crush attacks; it will take time for players to find the sweet spot when balancing risk vs. reward.
Let's revisit the defining heroes of past Skirmish seasons.
The infamous Ira, Crimson Haze has dropped in both popularity and performance. Ira made up only 4.3% of the field; and though she was especially good at making Top 8s, she struggled with closing, claiming only 2 tournament wins. It’s not that Ira got any worse, but rather that she’s seen many other heroes rising to her level; and perhaps the biggest influence on her waning numbers has been Kassai, who feels like a spiritual successor to her playstyle in many ways- though you wouldn’t know it from a decklist.
Dash is a solidly middle-of-the-road choice: any way you look at the data, she’s right in the middle. Joining her are Rhinar and Levia, who are all converting to Top 8s at a rate of 45-49% and winning the whole event in 3-4% of their appearances.
Dorinthea is perhaps the most notable of the old guard. Though she’s one-third as prevalent as Kassai, she actually has a better win conversion rate (nearly 12%) than her Cintari sister-in-arms. Learning the unique tactics necessary to successfully dispatch Dorinthea remains important to tournament preparedness.
Something Blue
Blitz has been known as the premiere format for Wizard, where lower life totals offset Kano’s health deficit and open the window to unexpected wins in the face of death. For many, Blitz is where they first encounter a Wizard, and learn to respect their arcane potential. Predictably, Kano has been putting up solid results- though the pool of players confident in their skills at Instant speed remains limited, holding Kano’s numbers in check. Kano has 12 tournament wins after week 1, for a massive 12.5% rate of converting an appearance into a win.
But Kano isn’t the Wizard I’m referring to when I mention something blue. It’s Iyslander who needs to be talked about.
If I’d asked you to tell me which heroes were most likely to win an event they showed up to, many of the answers would have been predicted correctly: Viserai, Oldhim, Kano, Dorinthea, Kassai. But with an appearance-to-win conversion rate of 9.8%, Iyslander joins an elite pool of heroes who convert at double digits (or damn near close to it). The next closest hero is Bravo, at 6.8%- the gap is pretty pronounced.
Why is Iyslander so effective? A part of it is certainly the mystery surrounding her; as a new hero from Everfest, players haven’t had the chance to become familiar with her strategies, and are likely to make mistakes when facing her. But those who have dedicated significant time to learning to play Iyslander report a surprisingly reliable Wizard who can play the long game toward an inevitable finisher. While Kano is explosive in his volatile damage output, Iyslander is content to let the game play out, knowing that she needs only collect a few combo pieces to win.
What’s more, Iyslander has access to the most disruptive card pool in the game with her Essence of Ice. Everyone on the elite list above her relies on a precise balance of pitch-to-cost; a single Frostbite can be a price too high to pay, especially when it’s delivered unexpectedly in the middle of their turn. Channel Lake Frigid, in particular, can flash freeze a go-wide deck in place.
Iyslander had only 51 appearances, which resulted in 28 Top 8s and 5 Tournament Wins. I expect to see those numbers climbing sharply by week 3.
Week 1 has given us an incredibly diverse field to consider moving forward. Popular favorites are holding their expected share of the population, but they aren’t monopolizing the results. Blitz tends to be a format for underdog stories, and I hope I get to report on a few- I’d love to see Azalea, Katsu, or Lexi claim crowns, and I know that we’ll see the Light prevail at least a couple times before Skirmish Season 4 ends. Take that as a personal challenge if you’d like; I’ll happily be responsible for egging you on toward a legendary tournament win piloting Genis Wotchuneed. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the game and the great community we’re building around it.
Alex Truell is a competitive Flesh and Blood player and author of content relating to gameplay and strategy. The opinions expressed in the above article are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Legend Story Studios.