We've invited some guest writers to contribute to fabtcg.com for the Skirmish season. Alex Truell is known for his work as an editor at the Rathe Times, and his monthly articles series titled Thoughts and Baubles. This final article in his metagame series discusses the metagame for all events across Skirmish Season 4.
Out of 542 Skirmish events across the world this season, only ~70 took place this past weekend. The resulting drop-off in statistics was preordained- what with sharing the weekend with Easter- but we still saw over 600 players participate in the final week of Season 4. All told, about 5400 decks were shuffled up to play for the Spring Tidings playmat these past 4 weeks.
While there are few surprises in the final distribution of wins, Week 4 saw the highest win conversion rates of this Skirmish season, and in some wildly unexpected places! Many heroes saw a drop in their representation, but also a climb in their results; it seems that the very best stood by their heroes and propelled them to some remarkable heights!
The final meta composition for Skirmish Season 4 looks like this:
Viserai walked away with 150 wins this season, followed by Oldhim at 103. From Volcor, Kassai raked in 73 and Kano took 42. Rhinar claimed 31 wins. Iyslander narrowly outpaced Dash, 23 to 22. Classic threats Dorinthea and Ira won 18 and 12, respectively. Runeblades Chane and Briar were joined by the classic Guardian Bravo at 8 apiece. Prism claimed 6 wins for the light, while Levia claimed 5. Rounding out the winner’s circle are Lexi (2), Katsu (1), and Benji (1).
With the hard numbers out of the way, let’s talk about what we saw from these heroes in Week 4.
The Steady March of the Arknight
Throughout Skirmish season, Viserai has been remarkably consistent. Starting at a 14.8% win conversion rate, this popular hero climbed to 16.8%, dipped to a flat 16%, and finally settled at 16.4% in the final week. That put him at an overall 16% rate of converting appearances into wins.
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s happening with Viserai. If there was more fluctuation in the number of Viserai decks, the consistent conversion numbers might carry more meaning; but the population each week remained consistent as well, with Viserai making up roughly 17% of the meta each week. If you were piloting Viserai, you likely faced mirror matches that saw one Viserai raising the average win rate while the other pulled it down. And because he showed up in greater numbers, he was inherently more likely to win. All of this ignores who a hero is popular with; if high-skill players all believe Viserai is the best choice, their skill reinforces that reputation.
In the end, Viserai’s 150 wins are not nearly enough to see him to Living Legend status in Blitz. He’ll have more opportunities to prove himself in future Skirmish seasons. Time will tell if he truly is the best of the best, or if this was just a moment for the Runeblade of Arcane Rising.
Leaving It All on the Frozen Field
We’ve been following two Icy heroes walking two very different paths to the top of the mountain this season.
Oldhim- a slow and steady gatekeeper of the Blitz meta- held his position at Viserai’s right hand the entire season, though his win conversion rate could vary wildly with the number of players. Here was a very different situation than Viserai, whose meta percentage tracked pretty closely with his win conversion rate. When Oldhim made up more of the meta, his win conversions took a big hit; but in the final week, with only 13% of the population playing Oldhim, his conversion rate hit an astronomical 19%!
The moral of the story: you simply can’t pick up Oldhim and expect to win with him. This is a hero who rewards experience; and if you don’t know Oldhim well, you’re better off countering him with a deck you know than jumping on board without practice.
But my favorite story of this Skirmish season has got to be the scene-stealing bit role that Iyslander played. Beginning the season piloted by a meager 51 players, she finished with only 23 appearances in Week 4- half of Week 3’s Iyslander population! And yet she still claimed 5 wins this week, giving her the ungodly conversion rate of 21.7%! Why, it was just last week that I was talking up Kano’s 17.6% conversion rate, and now Iyslander’s at 21.7% while Kano’s Week 4 rate is… 3.7%?!
I truly believe we are looking at a new hot hero from the frozen reaches of Aria. Iyslander is comfortable with a number of paths to victory, leaving you guessing as to the pilot’s preference when you see her card come up at the start of the game. Will she be a pure arcane build, harnessing the power of Aether Wildfire? Is she a ‘hybrid’ Wizard, alternating between arcane and physical damage? Will she take advantage of her ability to play Ice cards on the defensive to dole out Frostbite at instant speed? If you don’t know your opponent’s preferences, it’s nearly impossible to determine; you’ll just have to adjust as their strategy takes form.
The Weight of Expectation
If Iyslander is the Cinderella Story of the season, Kassai is the… well, Cinderella has pretty weak supporting characters. Iyslander is the unassuming real-world guy who fights the dragon and wins the girl, and Kassai is the also-very-nice guy who could have fought the dragon and also wins a girl, but none of that really makes for a dynamic narrative. Essentially, she met expectations, but never exceeded them, and now she’s the byline.
Kassai had an incredibly successful Skirmish season, claiming 3rd place overall in the hands of confident, strong players who went into the season knowing they’d get results. And she just never did anything more- or less- than that. Kassai- like Dorinthea- is destined for a future of solid and consistent Blitz usage, a consideration for any new deck looking to join the fray. But until she can find ways to break expectations (new lines of play, for example, or a novel approach to the very concept of her deck), she’s unlikely to break free of her role as ‘part of the calculus’.
Sometimes, Brute Force is the Best Tool for the Job
While no one could say that Levia was a big winner this Skirmish season, it must be said that she outperformed expectations. Long neglected in Chane’s shadow, the Levia faithful have nonetheless honed her deck, addressed her risky behaviors, and developed a kind of consistency that defies rationale. Levia never went a week without a win- and that’s with a variable population size of 12-38. By Week 4, the elite Levia players had brought her win conversion rate up to 8.3%. And while a shrinking population played a role in that increasing conversion rate, it’s nonetheless impressive that they never failed to miss a week. In that one area, Levia managed to outshine Chane, who couldn’t close a tournament in Week 4.
Meanwhile, Rhinar seemed to show that Week 1’s 3.3% conversion rate was a fluke. In Week 2, he had it back up to 7.3%; his Week 3 performance crested at 11.7%, and he closed out Week 4 with a 10.4%. Variance in his population size left him with an average conversion rate of 7.9%, but the complete picture shows that Rhinar should be viewed as a top tier Blitz hero who must be planned for; you never know how many may show up, and they’re entirely capable of running you over with a quick kill.
(Somehow, Kayo never managed to win a tournament, and I’m convinced it’s because people are drawn to him for the wrong reasons. If we have a Skirmish in Ripon, WI next season, I may just have to run my ‘Defensive Dominate’ Kayo to see if I’m right about that.)
Working On Self-Improvement
Bravo came into Skirmish Season 4 with a swagger he hadn’t really earned. Sure, his name was on everybody’s lips, but it was for the things he was destined to accomplish someday, and not for anything he’d realized in his youth. Through four weeks, Bravo’s play rate saw a steady collapse- but the performances of those elite few were enough to validate that spark of greatness in him. In Week 4, Bravo strode into tournaments only 11 times- but in 7 of those, he made Top 8, and once he stood victorious in the end. He’d walked many roads this season- and this was the one that would lead to his ultimate destiny.
Dash finished strong with 5 wins in the final week, which scored her a 13.2% conversion rate for the week. This is in stark contrast to her Week 1 performance, when she converted at a rate of 4.4%. What’s cool about that comparison is that her population in Week 1 and Week 4 were relatively similar; for that matter, so were her Top 8s. Dash simply got better at getting across the finish line.
Also improving: Ira, who began this season with 68 players converting at a rate of 2.9% and ended with 25 players converting 12% of their appearances to wins. Essentially, as the season progressed, Ira pairings became more and more dangerous. As the only Ninja to claim more than one tournament win, Ira was already the premiere choice for the class; but without peer, Ira set herself up as her measuring stick, and surpassed her own accomplishments.
Perhaps the hardest-hit hero in the conversion to Blitz format was Prism. In Week 1, she was unable to claim a win for herself; but starting with Week 2, she began a routine of winning 2 tournaments a week. It may not be explosive, but consistency is a strength as well.
Takeaways
What have we learned from following 542 Blitz tournaments these past 4 weeks?
As was said last week, my biggest takeaway has been an appreciation for the diversity of the game. I firmly believe that a strong player, with enough dedication, experience, and savvy, can make any hero work. And that’s backed up by 17 individual characters claiming tournament wins across the Skirmish season. It’s important that you have experience with a diverse pool of opponents, or you’ll find yourself taking a loss to Data Doll and wondering what happened.
That said, it’s clear that some heroes are performing better than others- whether that’s because they’re legitimately ‘best decks’ or simply because their playstyles align with some of the best players in the game. In this Everfest meta, it would be unwise to pilot a deck that has a poor matchup into Viserai or Oldhim. Conversely, if you’re working out your tech slots, you can probably afford to leave out those extra 6s you run just to shatter Phantasms, as Prism isn’t setting the tone of the meta right now; and those Ironhide equipments probably aren’t needed to counter Benji, who isn’t likely to show up while the meta is dominated by ‘fridge’ classes.
The top decks don’t follow a consistent pattern that we can target, leading to volatility in tournament play. Kassai wins with her weapons and reactions; Oldhim’s wins come on the back of heavy defenses. Kano will kill you on your turn, and Viserai will kill you after taking several turns off. Rhinar will claim his crown with good old-fashioned attacks- if Iyslander doesn’t tax his attacks right after he buffs them. These heroes represent every aspect of the game, which just showcases how much diversity exists in the core mechanics of the classes.
It’s been a pleasure sharing this data- and my thoughts- with the FAB community. If you like what you’ve seen, you can stop by the Rathe Times to read my Thoughts and Baubles editorials each month, and to find great content from amazing writers and players each week.
As always, enjoy the game, and the great community we’re building around it.
Alex Truell is a competitive Flesh and Blood player and author of content relating to gameplay and strategy. The opinions expressed in the above article are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Legend Story Studios.